Dun & Bradstreet’s latest Global Business Optimism Insights (GBOI) Report for Q4 2025 recorded a 1.0% quarter-on-quarter decline in global optimism to 104.5, as businesses adjusted to persistent trade uncertainty and rising costs. The fall was sharper in emerging economies (–2.2%) compared to advanced ones (–0.6%).
The survey, which tracks five indices covering business optimism, supply chain continuity, financial confidence, investment confidence, and ESG sentiment, shows that companies are turning inward to rely on domestic demand. While 71.6% of businesses remained optimistic about domestic sales, optimism around export orders dropped to 58.1%.
Large and medium-sized firms continued to show resilience, recording modest gains in sentiment, whereas small businesses saw another contraction, with optimism falling 7.2% in the quarter. Sectorally, manufacturing outperformed services, led by metals and electricals, while wholesale and retail trade remained weak.
Across Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Africa markets, the outlook was mixed. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain maintained stable confidence levels, supported by domestic demand and diversification policies. Nigeria experienced one of the steepest global declines in financial confidence (–17.7%), while Ghana and Tanzania showed resilience driven by improvements in logistics and manufacturing. In Bangladesh and Pakistan, optimism eased amid weaker external demand and inflationary pressures, though textiles and light manufacturing continued to show gradual recovery.
Globally, the Supply Chain Continuity Index fell 0.5% q/q, extending a 19% y/y decline, while the Financial Confidence Index dropped 2.3% q/q. The Investment Confidence Index also weakened (–2.5% q/q), and ESG sentiment slipped 5%, reflecting a temporary deprioritization of sustainability in favor of operational stability.
Businesses across all regions are focusing on targeted digital investments. Over 60% of surveyed firms are piloting or exploring AI integration, although cost and capability constraints continue to limit scale in emerging markets.
The report covers 32 economies, highlighting that recovery will hinge on adaptability, steady domestic policy, and pragmatic investment rather than aggressive expansion.
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Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd. is responsible for the Dun & Bradstreet business in countries across the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa. Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd. offers a suite of information solutions across these regions. Our services are utilized extensively by banks, financial institutions, government departments, multinationals, corporate entities, small and medium sized enterprises for seamless operations. We have offices in UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Ghana, Tanzania and Pakistan.
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