Dun & Bradstreet Pakistan and Gallup Pakistan have recently launched the sixteenth edition of the ‘Pakistan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Q1 FY2024-25’. This publication evaluates consumers’ confidence in both the broader economy and their personal financial situation, based on interviews conducted during the period July to September 2024.
The CCI report assesses consumer sentiments across four key areas: Household Financial Situation, Country’s Economic Situation, Unemployment, and Household Savings. This index offers insights into the ‘Current Sentiments’, reflecting economic shifts experienced in the past six months, as well as the ‘Future Expectations’, i.e., expected changes in the next six months.
By providing a holistic view of the consumers’ outlook nationwide, the report serves as a valuable resource for understanding the current economic landscape and its expected trajectory.
Ravissh Hasan, Associate Regional Director – Marketing at Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Africa stated, “The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has been the pulse of our economy for the last four years. This quarter we have witnessed a marginal decline in the overall CCI against the last cycle, however, there has been a significant improvement in the index compared to the same time last year which highlights an overall positive trend”.
Bilal Ijaz Gilani, Executive Director of Gallup Pakistan, while commenting on the findings of the report, added, “Despite a significant decrease in the inflation rate, the prices of basic commodities are still significantly high as compared to last year. Coupled with stagnant and for many declining income, the inflation rate decline is not enough to pull common people out of economic misery. The improved macroeconomic numbers are yet to translate into any form of relief for the common men and women in the country. Economic growth is nowhere in sight and till that time we might continue to see repressed consumer sentiment in the country”.
In this 16th edition of the report survey, a telephonic survey was conducted with 1,713 respondents between July and September 2024. Consequently, this edition reflects insights for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2024-25 (FY2024-25).
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) ranges from 0 to 200, with a neutral set at 100. A score below 100 indicates consumer pessimism, whereas a score above 100 reflects optimism. The current cycle’s Consumer Confidence Index stands at 72.9 points, marking a decline from 77.3 points in the previous cycle but an improvement over 65.8 points recorded during the same period last year. While consumer confidence remains pessimistic across all cycles, there has been an overall year-on-year improvement.
The majority of consumers expressed concerns that their Household Financial Conditions and the Country’s Economic Situation may worsen in the next six months. The key issues include limited Employment Opportunities and rising prices of Daily Essentials. Notably, four out of five consumers reported that the unemployment situation has worsened over the past six months; however, there is a relatively higher degree of optimism regarding future conditions.
Regional variations indicate that Punjab and Balochistan experienced significant declines in consumer sentiments, with drops of 12% and 17%, respectively, while KPK and Sindh showed improvements of 10% and 4%, respectively. KPK (78.6) remained the most optimistic region, followed by Sindh (72.1), Punjab (72.1), and Balochistan (66.1).
Consumer sentiments remained relatively stable, influenced by prevailing economic and political stability during the period captured in the CCI. Despite current challenges, expectations for the future appear more positive. With projected decreases in inflation rates and an anticipated increase in GDP growth, consumers showed greater optimism, reflected in a Future CCI score of 83.7, representing a 35% increase over the Current CCI score of 62.
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Data Appendix:
This is our sixteenth publication and combines issue numbers 15 and 16 (covering the March 2024 and July to September 2024 Surveys). Dun & Bradstreet Pakistan and Gallup Pakistan to publish this report on a quarterly basis. Complete findings of the report, along with index calculation methodology, can be viewed on our website: www.dnbpk.com as well as Gallup’s website: www.gallup.com.pk
